CVAP arbejdspapir 3: It's the Weather, Stupid! – Københavns Universitet

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Center for Valg og Partier > Publikationer > Arbejdspapir-serien > 2010/3 It's the Weathe...

Dette CVAP-arbejdspapir, udarbejdet af Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, bruger statistisk data til at undersøge forklaringer for, hvornår folk deltager i store demonstrationer.

Med titlen It's the Weather, Stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations, afsløres det allerede, at vejret rent statistisk har den største forklaringskraft ud af de undersøgte variable. Arbejdspapiret kan læses her.

"Abstract. We investigate the possible explanations of variations in aggregate levels of participation in large-scale political demonstrations. A simple public choice inspired model is applied to data derived from the annual May Day demonstrations of the Danish socialist parties and labour movement taking place in Copenhagen in the period 1980-2009. The most important explanatory variables are variation in the weather conditions. Political variables exhibit few or no robust effects and socio-economic variables none."